Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 87

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-2-J.Williams. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.63 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model