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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model