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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to IND 23, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model