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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 6

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP