Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 41

(4:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right [92-N.Gallimore].

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.88 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.84 EP