4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 17-D.Jones up the middle to IND 48 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model