4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 39

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model