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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 3-S.Shrader 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.11 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model