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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 6-J.Slye 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP