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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model