4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 33

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model