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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 67

Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to HOU 46 for 13 yards (26-An.Johnson; 29-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.81 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model