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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (98-T.Settle).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.42 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model