4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model