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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model