4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 90

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.53 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP