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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 56

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 25 yards to JAX 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP