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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 40 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane). Penalty on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at HOU 35. Penalty on JAX-47-D.Gardeck, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model