4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model