Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(7:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to GB 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 0-M.Golden to GB 36 for 3 yards (89-K.Davis; 86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model