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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.05 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model