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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 25-A.Szmyt 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model