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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 35 for 1 yard (58-I.McDuffie; 7-Q.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model