Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CLE 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 2-D.Carter to CLE 20 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.78 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model