Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-31-D.McMillon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model