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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model