Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

(11:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to GB 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model