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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to GB 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 12 for 5 yards (5-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.64 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model