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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to DEN 30, Center-41-R.Lovato. 19-M.Mims to LAC 46 for 24 yards (58-M.Wax; 28-H.Haskins).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.62 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model