Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(4:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LAC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for 7 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.24 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model