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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-R.Lovato. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 39 for 32 yards (43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model