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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 71

Denver Broncos 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP