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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP