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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP