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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 2 at the 52
Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10
What Actually Happened
(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+0.37 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.98 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.14 EP
KICK
-0.76 EP
- 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
