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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model