4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 48 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right to 36-Z.Scott to CIN 17 for 20 yards (69-M.Pennel).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP