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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 48 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.40 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model