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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 48 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CIN 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.32 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model