4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to MIN 20, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 26 for 6 yards (38-D.Ivey; 49-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model