Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on MIN-37-T.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.69 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model