Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(15:00) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to ARI 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.82 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model