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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.93 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP