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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP