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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at ARI 6 for 34 yards (13-K.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model