Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 99

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(14:11) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to SF 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to ARI 48 for 8 yards (36-K.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO -3.91 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.40 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model