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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP