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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 44 for 5 yards (20-U.Stout).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model