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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 14 for 8 yards (28-D.Luter; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model