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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 18-E.Pineiro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model